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Reagan's National Security Legacy

Model-Based Analyses of Recent Changes in American Policy

Department of Political Science, Florida State University

As the Reagan presidency draws to an end, speculation grows as to its legacy in various areas, from domestic economics to international politics. The current study takes as its focus the Reagan legacy in the area of national security policy: specifically, the possible effects of Reagan's defense spending and Soviet policies. Using the global political-economic simulation model GLOBUS, a set of Reagan-like budgeting and foreign policies are formally implemented within the model and the resulting changes in behavior systematically evaluated. Two versions of this scenario are examined. In the first, it is assumed that the Reagan policies represent a permanent shift in the American position, while in the second case these policies are seen as a temporary aberration, remaining in effect only as long as Reagan is in the White House. Beginning with the political effects of these policy changes on Soviet-American relations and the national security of the two superpowers, the study then expands its focus to changes in the budgeting behavior of the United States and the impact on the domestic economy. These changes in American national security policy reverberate strongly throughout the political-economic system, though their effects are neither as uniformly positive as the supporters of these policies would claim nor as consistently negative as the critics profess.

Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 32, No. 4, 595-625 (1988)
DOI: 10.1177/0022002788032004001


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