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Journal of Conflict Resolution
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A Bayesian Analysis of a Class of Multistage Decision Problems

James M. Enelow

Department of Political Science, State University of New York at Stony Brook

This article uses a Bayesian rational approach to analyze a generic set of decision problems. A committee must decide which proposal to submit to a set of decision bodies, which decide separately whether to accept or reject the proposal. The article offers sufficient conditions for the proposing body to reach rational group decisions. The model is applied to decision making in response to an international crisis.

Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 32, No. 4, 759-772 (1988)
DOI: 10.1177/0022002788032004007
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