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War And Politics in Ancient China, 2700 B.C. to 722 B.C.

Measurement and Comparative Analysis

David Lai

University of Colorado, Boulder

The authors report the first findings on the origins and evolution of war and politics in ancient China (Legendary, Xia [Hsia], Shang, and Western Zhou [Chou] periods), from ca. 2700 B.C. to 722 B.C. The main findings are as follows: (1) warfare in China began, at the latest, by 2193 B.C. (first historical Chinese civil war) or 2146 B.C. (first interstate war), more than 4,000 years ago, and has continued unabated; (2) warfare patterns varied significantly across periods but in measurable ways, similar to earlier long-range findings for other regions; (3) warfare onsets increased across periods, particularly during the Zhou period, reaching a peak frequency of approximately 10% of the modern world frequency (1816-1980 A.D.); (4) war onset was mostly inhibited (opposite of contagious), symptomatic of stability and restraint; and (5) the highest stability occurred during the Shang epoch and the lowest during the Xia and Western Zhou periods. The results support the comparative, universal properties of warfare, both cross-polity and cross-temporally.

Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 39, No. 3, 467-494 (1995)
DOI: 10.1177/0022002795039003004


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