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Journal of Conflict Resolution
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How Rational Is "The Rational Public"?

Evidence from U.S. Public Opinion on Military Spending

Jeffrey W. Knopf

Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies

Specialists on U.S. public opinion and foreign policy have rejected the Almond-Lippmann consensus, which implied public attitudes were dangerously erratic, and have moved in varying degrees toward a view of public opinion as rational. Consensus on this new view would be premature. The revisionists have not yet addressed all elements of the traditional critique of the American public. In particular, they have overlooked the thesis of postwar foreign policy realists that the public reacts to foreign threats too slowly and then too strongly. This article presents a preliminary test of the classical realist hypotheses, through an analysis of public opinion on military spending from 1965 to 1991. On balance, the results favor the rational public perspective. Some caveats, however, suggest the need for further research before the traditional, negative view of the public should be rejected.

Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 42, No. 5, 544-571 (1998)
DOI: 10.1177/0022002798042005002
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