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Journal of Conflict Resolution
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Cognitive-Affective States Predict Military and Political Aggression and Risk Taking

A Content Analysis of Churchill, Hitler, Roosevelt, and Stalin

Jason M. Satterfield

Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco

The explanatory styles, integrative complexity, and pessimistic rumination scores of Winston Churchill, Adolf Hitler, Josef Stalin, and Franklin D. Roosevelt were derived from verbatim materials for time periods preceding military and political events. The events were rated on scales of aggression/passivity and risk/caution. Results suggest that increases in optimism and decreases in integrative complexity before military and political events predict heightened aggression and risk taking and that increases in low-complexity optimism are strongly predictive. Pessimistic rumination was not a significant predictor. The author hypothesizes that explanatory style and integrative complexity act as cognitive "filters" mediating between situations and behaviors via decision-making and motivational shifts. However, shifts in explanatory style and/or integrative complexity prior to military and political actions could only reflect impression management strategies. Further research comparing private to public verbatim materials is needed.

Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 42, No. 6, 667-690 (1998)
DOI: 10.1177/0022002798042006001
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[Abstract] [PDF]