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Journal of Conflict Resolution
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Exploring the Dynamics of the Democratic Peace

Lars-Erik Cederman

Government Department, Harvard University

Mohan Penubarti Rao

Director, InteCap, Inc.

In quantitative models of international conflict, the variables' causal effects are generally assumed to be constant over historical time. Yet, qualitative liberal theorizing, especially that of Immanuel Kant, has tended to emphasize a dynamic perspective based on the theme of progress. To bridge this gap between method-imposed stasis and theoretical dynamics, a framework featuring time-varying parameters is applied to the democratic peace hypothesis. The model strongly confirms a dynamic reinterpretation of Kant's theory. Results show that dispute probabilities decline steadily among democratic states over time, and the democratic peace hypothesis is not just a transient cold war effect. This result is robust to statistical control involving geopolitical and liberal control variables, including alliances, capabilities, and economic development.

Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 45, No. 6, 818-833 (2001)
DOI: 10.1177/0022002701045006006
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