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Traditional Decision Analysis and the Poliheuristic Theory of Foreign Policy Decision Making

College of Business and Economics, University of Idaho

Lisa J. Carlson

Department of Political Science, University of Idaho

The poliheuristic theory of foreign policy decision making posits a two-stage process wherein the decision maker first employs a noncompensatory decision rule to eliminate politically unacceptable alternatives and then employs a (perhaps) traditional decision procedure to select from the remaining set of acceptable alternatives. Ageneral decision analysis is used to provide a structured account of the elimination process of the first stage of the poliheuristic theory by displaying a noncompensatory decision rule for eliminating unacceptable policy alternatives. The results show how general decision analysis can be used to specify when an alternative is unacceptable to a political decision maker who is sensitive to public opinion.

Key Words: Decision analysis • poliheuristic theory • risk analysis

Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 48, No. 1, 38-55 (2004)
DOI: 10.1177/0022002703261053


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