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Journal of Conflict Resolution
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Fear of Persecution

Forced Migration, 1952-1995

Will H. Moore

Department of Political Science, Florida State University

Stephen M. Shellman

Department of Government, College of William and Mary

Why would people abandon their homes in favor of an uncertain life elsewhere? The short answer, of course, is violence. More specifically, the authors contend that people monitor the violent behavior of both the government and dissidents and assess the threat such behavior poses to their lives, physical person, and liberty. The greater the threat posed by the behavior of the government and dissidents, the larger the number of forced migrants a country will produce. To test hypotheses drawn from this argument the authors use a global sample of countries over more than forty years. Their findings are held to be consistent with their argument, showing that violent behavior has a substantially larger impact on forced migration than variables such as the type of political institution or the average size of the economy.

Key Words: forced migration • refugees • internally displaced persons

Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 48, No. 5, 723-745 (2004)
DOI: 10.1177/0022002704267767
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