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Journal of Conflict Resolution
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Asylum Recognition Rates in Western Europe

Their Determinants, Variation, and Lack of Convergence

Eric Neumayer

Department of Geography and Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science and Centre for the Study of Civil War, International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO), Norway

Substantial variation in recognition rates for asylum claims from the same countries of origin subjects refugees to unfair and discriminatory treatment. This article demonstrates the extent of variation and lack of convergence over the period from 1980 to 1999 across Western European destination countries. Refugee interest groups also suspect that political and economic conditions in destination countries, as well as the number of past asylum claims, unduly affect recognition rates. This article estimates the determinants of asylum recognition rates. Origin-specific recognition rates vary, as they should, with the extent of political oppression, human rights violations, interstate armed conflict, and events of genocide and politicide in countries of origin. Recognition rates for the full-protection status are lower only in times of high unemployment in destination countries. Such rates are also lower if many asylum seekers from a country of origin have already applied for asylum in the past.

Key Words: asylum • refugee • recognition rates • convergence • conflict

Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 49, No. 1, 43-66 (2005)
DOI: 10.1177/0022002704271057
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