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Journal of Conflict Resolution
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Offense-Defense Theory

An Empirical Assessment

Yoav Gortzak

Yoram Z. Haftel

Kevin Sweeney

Department of Political Science, Ohio State University

Proponents of offense-defense theory (ODT) contend that the offense-defense balance (ODB) forms the "master key" to understanding the question of peace and war. Time-series event count models of war and militarized interstate disputes at the systemic level are used to test the theory’s claims that shifts in the ODB have an important effect on the likelihood of internationalwar and militarized disputes and thatODToffers a more powerful explanation for conflict than other explanations in the international relations (IR) literature. Results cast doubt on the empirical validity of the ODT and indicate that other IR theories have important explanatory power.

Key Words: offense-defense theory • offense-defense balance • militarized interstate disputes • international relations

Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 49, No. 1, 67-89 (2005)
DOI: 10.1177/0022002704271280
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