This Article Full Text (PDF) Dataset References Alert me when this article is cited Alert me if a correction is posted Citation Map Services Email this article to a friend Similar articles in this journal Alert me to new issues of the journal Add to Saved Citations Download to citation manager Request Permissions Request Reprints Add to My Marked Citations Citing Articles Citing Articles via HighWire Citing Articles via Google Scholar Google Scholar Articles by Hegre, H. Articles by Sambanis, N. Search for Related Content Social Bookmarking                   What's this?

Sensitivity Analysis of Empirical Results on Civil War Onset

Centre for the Study of Civil War, PRIO

Nicholas Sambanis

Political Science Department, Yale University

In the literature on civil war onset, several empirical results are not robust or replicable across studies. Studies use different definitions of civil war and analyze different time periods, so readers cannot easily determine if differences in empirical results are due to those factors or if most empirical results are just not robust. The authors apply a methodology for organized specification tests to check the robustness of empirical results. They isolate causes of variation in empirical results by using the same definition of civil war and analyzing the same time period while systematically exploring the sensitivity of eighty-eight variables used to explain civil war in the literature. Several relationships with the onset of civil wars prove robust: large population and low income levels, low rates of economic growth, recent political instability and inconsistent democratic institutions, small military establishments and rough terrain, and war-prone and undemocratic neighbors. Variables representing ethnic difference in the population are robust only in relation to lower level armed conflict.

Key Words: civil war • internal armed conflict • sensitivity analysis • ethnic fractionalization

CiteULike    Connotea    Del.icio.us    Digg    Reddit    Technorati    What's this?

This article has been cited by other articles:

				H. Urdal Population, Resources, and Political Violence: A Subnational Study of India, 1956-2002 Journal of Conflict Resolution, August 1, 2008; 52(4): 590 - 617. [Abstract] [PDF]

				N. M. Jensen and D. J. Young A Violent Future? Political Risk Insurance Markets and Violence Forecasts Journal of Conflict Resolution, August 1, 2008; 52(4): 527 - 547. [Abstract] [PDF]

				J. Esteban and D. Ray Polarization, Fractionalization and Conflict Journal of Peace Research, March 1, 2008; 45(2): 163 - 182. [Abstract] [PDF]

				G. Schneider and N. Wiesehomeier Rules That Matter: Political Institutions and the Diversity--Conflict Nexus Journal of Peace Research, March 1, 2008; 45(2): 183 - 203. [Abstract] [PDF]

				E. Forsberg Polarization and Ethnic Conflict in a Widened Strategic Setting Journal of Peace Research, March 1, 2008; 45(2): 283 - 300. [Abstract] [PDF]

				K. S. Gleditsch Transnational Dimensions of Civil War Journal of Peace Research, May 1, 2007; 44(3): 293 - 309. [Abstract] [PDF]

				S. C. Carey Rebellion in Africa: Disaggregating the Effect of Political Regimes Journal of Peace Research, January 1, 2007; 44(1): 47 - 64. [Abstract] [PDF]

				C. L. Thyne Cheap Signals with Costly Consequences: The Effect of Interstate Relations on Civil War Journal of Conflict Resolution, December 1, 2006; 50(6): 937 - 961. [Abstract] [PDF]

				H. Buhaug Relative Capability and Rebel Objective in Civil War Journal of Peace Research, November 1, 2006; 43(6): 691 - 708. [Abstract] [PDF]