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Journal of Conflict Resolution
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The Indirect Effect of Ethnic Heterogeneity on the Likelihood of Civil War Onset

Randall J. Blimes

Department of Political Science University of Colorado, Boulder

This study leverages a statistical model to answer an empirical puzzle: given that popular conventional wisdom and many theories of ethnic conflict suggest that the ethnic composition of a society should influence the probability that a country experiences civil war, why are the results of large-n studies so contradictory? The author argues that confusion over the nature of the relationship between ethnic cleavages and the likelihood of civil war onset stems from a disconnect between ethnic conflict theory and empirical testing. Most studies that test for a relationship between the level of ethnic fractionalization and civil war onset test only for a direct relationship, while theories of ethnic conflict have suggested that ethnic diversity should have an indirect effect of the likelihood of civil war onset. The author uses a heteroskedastic probit model to show that ethnic fractionalization has an indirect effect on the likelihood of civil war onset.

Key Words: Ethnic heterogeneity • civil war • conflict • ethnic fractionalization

Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 50, No. 4, 536-547 (2006)
DOI: 10.1177/00222706289402
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Home page
 Journal of Conflict ResolutionHome page
R. Bhavnani and D. Miodownik
Ethnic Polarization, Ethnic Salience, and Civil War
Journal of Conflict Resolution, February 1, 2009; 53(1): 30 - 49.
[Abstract] [PDF]