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Journal of Conflict Resolution
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Power

The Missing Link in the Trade Conflict Relationship

Jun Xiang

Department of Political Science University of Rochester, New York

Xiaohong Xu

Department of Political Science Binghamton University, New York

George Keteku

Department of Political Science Binghamton University, New York

We join the debate on trade interdependence and conflict with a reexamination of Barbieri's (1996) intriguing empirical results showing that under certain circumstances, trade interdependence causes conflict. We argue that these findings resulted from a specification that was missing a variable. We return to Barbieri's models and introduce two independent power measures for countries within each dyad. When a correctly specified trade-conflict regression model incorporating the new power variables is performed, the constraining effect of interdependence becomes evident, and the results obtained are the reverse of Barbieri's.

Key Words: trade interdependence • military power • conflict • omitted variable bias • trade measurement

Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 51, No. 4, 646-663 (2007)
DOI: 10.1177/0022002707302802
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[Abstract] [PDF]