This Article Full Text (PDF) Data Set All Versions of this Article: 0022002708330881v1 53/3/331    most recent References Alert me when this article is cited Alert me if a correction is posted Citation Map Services Email this article to a friend Similar articles in this journal Alert me to new issues of the journal Add to Saved Citations Download to citation manager Request Permissions Request Reprints Add to My Marked Citations Citing Articles Citing Articles via Scopus Google Scholar Articles by Lyall, J. Social Bookmarking                         What's this?

Does Indiscriminate Violence Incite Insurgent Attacks?

Evidence from Chechnya

Department of Politics and the Woodrow Wilson School Princeton University, New Jersey

Does a state's use of indiscriminate violence incite insurgent attacks? To date, most existing theories and empirical studies have concluded that such violence is highly counterproductive because it creates new grievances while forcing victims to seek security, if not safety, in rebel arms. This proposition is tested using Russian artillery fire in Chechnya (2000 to 2005) to estimate indiscriminate violence's effect on subsequent patterns of insurgent attacks across matched pairs of similar shelled and nonshelled villages. The findings are counterintuitive. Shelled villages experience a 24 percent reduction in posttreatment mean insurgent attacks relative to control villages. In addition, commonly cited "triggers" for insurgent retaliation, including the lethality and destructiveness of indiscriminate violence, are either negatively correlated with insurgent attacks or statistically insignificant.

Key Words: civil war • indiscriminate violence • insurgent attacks • matching • Chechnya

This version was published on June 1, 2009

Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 53, No. 3, 331-362 (2009)
DOI: 10.1177/0022002708330881


CiteULike    Complore    Connotea    Del.icio.us    Digg    Reddit    Technorati    Twitter    What's this?