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Perfect Storms? Political Instability in Imposed Polities and the Futures of Iraq and Afghanistan

Department of Political Science, University of North Texas, Denton

^* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: ajenter{at}unt.edu.

	Abstract

What explains variation in domestic political instability in polities imposed by foreign powers? We formulate a framework grounded in four sources of political instability in imposed polities: (1) the initial conditions under which a polity is imposed, (2) policy choices made by the imposer, (3) the prevailing domestic conditions within states hosting the imposed polity, and (4) the international environment within which the host state is embedded. Employing a sample of ninety-four imposed polities during the period 1816–1994 to test expectations from the framework, we find, in part, that ethnoreligious heterogeneity coupled with democratic institutions, preimposition military defeat, colonial experience, dissimilarity of neighboring political institutions, hostility from neighboring states, and the presence of the imposing state each stimulate political instability. The analysis suggests a bleak prognosis for domestic peace in postinvasion Afghanistan and Iraq as the causal factors that militate against domestic stability are manifold and likely reinforcing.

First published on September 22, 2008, doi:10.1177/0022002708323796

Journal of Conflict Resolution 2008;52:880.

A more recent version of this article appeared on December 1, 2008


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