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Dangerous Dyads
Conditions Affecting the Likelihood of Interstate War, 1816-1965
Stuart A. Bremer
State University of New York, Binghamton
Theoretical arguments and some empirical evidence suggest that war is more likely to occur between states that are geographically proximate, approximately equal in power, major powers, allied, undemocratic, economically advanced, and highly militarized than between those that are not. Bivariate analyses of these seven factors in relation to the onset of interstate war over all pairs of states in the period from 1816 to 1965 generally support these associations. However, multivariate analyses reveal some differences. In order of declining importance, the conditions that characterize a dangerous, war-prone dyad are: presence of contiguity, absence of alliance, absence of more advanced economy, absence of democratic polity, absence of overwhelming preponderance, and presence of major power. Taken together these findings suggest that our research priorities may be seriously distorted and that the idealist prescription for peace may be better than the realist one.
Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 36, No. 2,
309-341 (1992)
DOI: 10.1177/0022002792036002005
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[Abstract]
[PDF]
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J. J. Hewitt and J. Wilkenfeld
One-Sided Crises in The International System
Journal of Peace Research,
May 1, 1999;
36(3):
309 - 323.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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E. A. Henderson
Neoidealism and the Democratic Peace
Journal of Peace Research,
March 1, 1999;
36(2):
203 - 231.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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B. D. Mor and Z. Maoz
Learning and the Evolution of Enduring International Rivalries: a Strategic Approach
Conflict Management and Peace Science,
January 1, 1999;
17(1):
1 - 48.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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R. J. Leng
Cumulation in Qip: Twenty-Five Years After Ojai
Conflict Management and Peace Science,
January 1, 1999;
17(2):
133 - 147.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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A. J. Enterline
Regime Changes, Neighborhoods, and Interstate Conflict, 1816-1992
Journal of Conflict Resolution,
December 1, 1998;
42(6):
804 - 829.
[Abstract]
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A. J. Enterline
Regime Changes and Interstate Conflict, 1816-1992
Political Research Quarterly,
June 1, 1998;
51(2):
385 - 409.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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N. P. Gleditsch
Armed Conflict and The Environment: A Critique of the Literature
Journal of Peace Research,
May 1, 1998;
35(3):
381 - 400.
[Abstract]
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M. KRAIN
Contemporary Democracies Revisited: Democracy, Political Violence, and Event Count Models
Comparative Political Studies,
April 1, 1998;
31(2):
139 - 164.
[Abstract]
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S. G. Sample
Military Buildups, War, and Realpolitik: A Multivariate Model
Journal of Conflict Resolution,
April 1, 1998;
42(2):
156 - 175.
[Abstract]
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